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On the credible probability of confidence intervals
Confidence intervals are commonly misinterpreted by consumers of statistics. Hoekstra et al. [1] presented 120 psychology researchers and 442 students with ‘a fictitious scenario of a professor who conducts an experiment and reports a 95% CI for the mean that ranges from 0.1 to… »
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Quasi-likelihood gamma regression in statsmodels for zeroes in observations
Generalised linear models with a gamma distribution and log link are frequently used to model non-negative right-skewed continuous data, such as costs [1].
For example, in statsmodels:
… »import numpy as np import pandas as pd from scipy import stats import statsmodels.api as sm # -
Robust Poisson regression in medical biostatistics
Log-binomial and robust (modified) Poisson regression are common approaches to estimating risk ratios in medical biostatistics [1].
I have discussed log-binomial regression in a previous post about generalised linear models. The conceptual basis for using log-binomial regression to estimate risk ratios is straightforward –… »
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OpenTally dev log: Battery of optimisations leads to 108% performance improvement
Using rational arithmetic, OpenTally e825ca1 processes the 3,821,539-vote 2022 Australian Senate election for Victoria in a mean 11.34 (95% CI ± 0.03) seconds on my Intel i5-7500. This week I put some time into cutting this figure down.
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Later-no-harm and the ‘Wright’ method of single transferable vote
Later-no-harm is a criterion for preferential voting methods which provides that ‘Adding a later preference to a ballot should not harm any candidate already listed’ [1]. The most well-known voting systems which comply with later-no-harm are the single transferable vote (STV), and its single-winner… »
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Curiosities in drafting for the weighted inclusive Gregory method of STV
In Australia, 2 jurisdictions make use of the weighted inclusive Gregory method of the single transferable vote (STV). The weighted inclusive Gregory method of STV is one of 2 systems recommended by the Proportional Representation Society of Australia as part of a gold standard electoral… »